Breaking Down Each Opponent Browns Could Play In First Playoff Game

As the Cleveland Browns prepare to close out their regular season against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 18, the Browns should be prioritizing the Bengals as the fourth-most important team they should’ve reviewed on film this week.

Sunday’s game is meaningless — the Browns are locked into the fifth seed in the AFC, while the Bengals are eliminated from the playoffs. Cleveland will be playing one of three AFC South teams on the road in the Wild Card Round in two weeks, and Browns coaches and football personnel have time on their side when it comes to preparing for the franchise’s first playoff opponent since 2020.

If the Jacksonville Jaguars defeat the Tennessee Titans on Sunday afternoon, the Browns will travel to Jacksonville to begin the playoffs. If the Jaguars lose, the Browns will travel to play the winner of the Colts-Texans matchup from Saturday night.

Here’s a breakdown of how each opponent has fared this season with expected points added (EPA) rankings on each side of the ball, net EPA rankings, a look at how each team has fared in their last 6 games — since momentum certainly matters for the playoffs — as well as a snapshot of how each of their respective seasons have fared.

Jaguars (9-7)

Offensive EPA per play: -.09 (22nd)

Defensive EPA per play: -.05 (15th)

Net EPA: -.04 (20th)

Last 6 games: 2-4

After starting the season 6-2, the Jaguars have seen substantial regression in recent weeks, and much of that can be attributed to quarterback Trevor Lawrence dealing with multiple injuries over the last month. The Browns beat the Jaguars 31-27 in Week 14, and both teams have seemingly trended in opposite directions since then. Even if Lawrence plays in Week 18 — he was limited in the first two practice days this week — his health will be worth monitoring if the Jaguars advance.

Texans (9-7)

Offensive EPA per play: -.04 (14th)

Defensive EPA per play: -.05 (14th)

Net EPA: .02 (14th)

Last 6 games: 3-3

After ripping off a three-game win streak in the middle of November to position themselves for a playoff run, the Texans have cooled off a bit. Some of that is because quarterback C.J. Stroud, the frontrunner to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, missed two games with a concussion, which included the Browns’ 36-22 win over them on Christmas Eve. Joe Flacco and Amari Cooper, of course, torched the Texans that afternoon, with Cooper totaling 265 yards to break the franchise single-game receiving record. The Texans did mount a comeback in that game after initially going down 36-7, and the presence of Stroud in the playoffs would give the Browns a different challenge than what they remember from two weeks ago.

Colts (9-7)

Offensive EPA per play: -.03 (13th)

Defensive EPA per play: -.05 (19th)

Net EPA: -.00 (15th)

Last 6 games: 4-2

The Colts have been a mediocrity all season, but they still play opponents close. The Browns saw that themselves in Week 7 when they barely hung on for a 39-38 win in Indianapolis. The Colts lost the game after that, too, to fall to 3-5, but they’ve rebounded with six wins in their last eight games. Quarterback Gardner Minshew has been a steadying presence — he’s 11th among QBs in QBR, which is ahead of the likes of Lawrence and Stroud as well as Tua Tagovailoa and Jared Goff. He doesn’t commit many turnovers, either (only nine interceptions this season), which has given the Colts a shot at the division.