© Gregg Pachkowski / gregg@pnj.com / USA
Oddsmakers Have Picked the Favorite to Be Broncos' QB of the Future
The Denver Broncos are badly in need of a franchise quarterback and the oddsmakers have tapped one prospect as the favorite.
The Denver Broncos are less than two weeks out from the 2024 NFL draft. Set to kick off on Thursday, April 25, the draft is inching closer, and holding the No. 12 overall pick; the Broncos have some big decisions to make.
It's not hyperbole to say that Denver's current quarterback situation is the worst in the NFL. With Jarrett Stidham poised atop the team's quarterback depth chart and Ben DiNucci as the No. 2, if the Broncos had to go to war tomorrow, it would be a very disadvantageous situation for Sean Payton.
As one anonymous AFC executive recently told ESPN, none of Denver's NFL peers believe that Payton will go into the 2024 season with his quarterback room as is. The implication is that the Broncos are going to not only draft a quarterback later this month but with their first-round pick.
Of all the names linked to the Broncos since the offseason began, Oregon's Bo Nix is the odds-on favorite to land in Denver. According to FanDuel, the Broncos are listed as -120 favorites to draft Nix, easily the favorites, with the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants sitting with the next-best odds to draft the Oregon star at +700.
There are multiple reasons why the oddsmakers view Nix as the apple of Payton's eye. Let's examine them.
Jan 1, 2024; Glendale, AZ, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix (10) throws against the Liberty
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Availability
Firstly, there's the pragmatic aspect of him being projected to be the fifth QB off the board and the highest-rated guy expected to be available at No. 12 overall. That's important, obviously.
Fit With Broncos
Secondly, there's the fit component. Payton is looking for a QB with a "quick processor" — someone who can read and diagnose information as it presents itself in real time and operate the offense with poise and command. Nix checks those boxes.
Nix's play style is also a tremendous fit for Payton. In the variant of the West Coast Offense Payton deploys, the passing attack becomes an extension of the running game, exactly how the progenitor of the scheme — the late, great Bill Walsh — intended it to be.
At Oregon, Nix was a 'system QB' in the best sense — a prolific operator of the Ducks' scheme — which saw him rarely push the ball downfield. Instead, Oregon's scheme demanded that he threw often to the short-to-intermediate levels of the field, which prioritized quick processing, good decision-making, and accuracy.
The Brees Comparison
Thirdly, Nix has been compared to future Hall-of-Famer Drew Brees — the iconic quarterback at the controls of Payton's offense in New Orleans for 14 years. There are many similarities between Nix and Brees — especially relative to their cerebral nature and smooth, efficient passing styles — but it's no stretch to say that the Oregon quarterback is a better athlete.
In five years as a NCAA Division I starter — three at Auburn and two at Oregon — Nix rushed for 1,613 yards and a whopping 38 touchdowns. He even caught a touchdown pass in 2022 at Oregon.
Experience
Lastly, Nix is not only the most experienced quarterback in the 2024 draft class, but also in the history of college football. His 61 career starts is an NCAA record, shattering the previously held mark that was shared by Texas' Colt McCoy and Boise State's Kellen Moore (53 starts).
Why does Nix's relative experience matter that much to the Broncos? Payton needs a QB who's much closer to being a finished product — someone who can step in early as a rookie and hit the ground running. That becomes even more paramount when Nix's age is considered.
Nix just turned 24 in February. For comparison's sake, Michigan's J.J. McCarthy and UNC's Drake Maye are both 21, USC's Caleb Williams is 22, and LSU's Jayden Daniels is 23. Washington's Michael Penix Jr. is also 23, set to turn 24 during his rookie season.
The Takeaway
The stars align in multiple ways on the Nix-to-Denver subject, which is why he's the favorite to land with the Broncos. Will it shake out that way come April 25? Time will tell.
But one of the 'pros,' as it were, to the Broncos drafting Nix is how it would eliminate the need to trade up. In fact, targeting Nix could open the door to the Broncos trading back in the draft, and still having a plausible shot at landing him later in the first round.
The Broncos have a first-round pick to spend for the first time since drafting cornerback Patrick Surtain II in 2021, but they're without a 2024 second-rounder, thanks to the trade with the New Orleans Saints last year to secure Payton's coaching rights.
Targeting Nix, or Penix for that matter, would open up the possibility of the Broncos trading back in Round 1 and picking up a second-rounder to use this year. Such a scenario would be risky, with the QB-needy Raiders sitting right behind Denver at No. 13 overall in the draft, but it could allow Payton to have his cake and eat it, too.
Meaning, the Broncos could still get their quarterback of the future in Round 1, and stockpile more draft capital to use in the premium rounds of this year's draft. Stay tuned.
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