Monday Donuts: Luka's Out, Milwaukee's Next and The 'Hit-Back" Mavs Must Learn to Hit First

DONUT 1: The Elephant in the Room

I’m not going to be graphic about it, but here’s the deal: Luka Doncic rolled his ankle badly enough that he limped off the court less than two minutes into a high-profile Sunday home game, and the closest he came to action after that was an underwater treadmill at the AAC.

The X-ray was negative. That’s obviously good news. The fact that he was doing extremely supervised cardio on the ankle is maybe (probably) good news?

Anecdotally, I can tell you that the worst injury I’ve ever had is a dislocated ankle that left me in a boot for over a month (and I was tender for longer than that). The night I dislocated the ankle I played two-and-a-half more games of one-on-one ball at a crappy outdoor sport-court in Denton. The next day it had swollen up so badly that I had to scoot up and down my stairs on my butt, and slept on the downstairs couch for a couple of weeks until the swelling had gone down.

Luka is younger than I was when it happened, Luka is in better shape than I was in, and Luka had medical help on hand immediately. (Oh how I wish Casey Smith could've met me in Denton!) But, I’m cautious about overreacting to what a guy can do when he’s pumped full of endorphins and adrenaline. Remember, Klay Thompson ran up and down a hallway during last year’s NBA Finals, just to see if he could go back into a game in which he’d torn his MCL. Competitive players don’t always make the best decision for the long term, because they want to win at a supernatural level.

I’m optimistic, and I’m even encouraged by most of the news we’ve heard since the fall (an early fear that he’d miss as many as eight weeks has whittled down to maybe no more than weeks), but I’m not going to read into any late-night treadmill marathons until he’s doing it again in the cold light of day.

DONUT 2: Heat 122, Mavericks 118

Now that we’ve talked about the obvious, let’s quickly revisit how this whole thing went down.

Luka played fewer than two minutes before he rolled his ankle. The Heat took advantage of the shellshocked Mavericks, who’ve made a bad habit of digging early holes lately, and swelled their lead to as much as 24 points in the first half. They went into halftime leading by 23.

At halftime, the Mavericks remembered that they have an entire roster of quality players not named "Luka" and they dug their way all the way back (thanks, in small part, to a tired Heat team on the second game of a back-to-back). The Mavericks even took a small lead in regulation, and then later in overtime. But, thanks to questionable offensive sets, and some questionable officiating, the Heat found a way to hang in for a narrow victory in Dallas.

Said coach Rick Carlisle: "Guys knew that we were getting outplayed and outworked. We turned it around in the second half. We just needed to make one more play or have one more ball bounce our way or get one more call – and that didn’t happen. It’s a disappointing ending. But hey, it’s next-man-up. ... We’ve got to circle the wagons with the guys that we have and play like we did in the second half. Pretty simple."

You can read a full account of the Mavs “Next Man Up Grit” thanks to Matthew Postins.

DONUT 3: The Gauntlet

I don’t know if you’ve heard, but the Mavericks just stepped groin-first into a stretch of tough basketball that started with Miami and continues for five games over seven grueling days.

Including Saturday, the Mavs upcoming five-game schedule looks like this: Heat, Bucks, Celtics, 76ers, and Raptors. If you’re paying attention, that is the third, first, fourth, second, and fifth place teams in the Eastern Conference. For perspective, that’s also the fourth, first, sixth, third, and eighth teams in the league (the Mavericks currently hold the seventh best record).

The overall record of the five teams (not including the Heat victory over the Mavericks on Saturday) is 96-32.

This was going to be a tall hill to climb even with Luka leading the charge. Thanks to the ankle injury, Luka will miss some time, and that means he’ll likely miss this entire stretch of opponents. 

If the Mavericks can even split the final four games of this stretch, I’d consider it a wild success.

DONUT 4: The Jimmy Butler Approach to Learning

Make no mistake, the Miami Heat were going to be a problem for the Mavericks even if Luka had played 35 minutes on Saturday night, and one of the reasons the Miami Heat are having such a great season is the fantastic production they’re getting from their younger players. 

Jimmy’s doing a great job, which means he’s doing what you’d expect him to do on both ends of the floor (even if his three-point shot is getting Westbrookian). But, what’s really helped this team is that while Butler was out for the first couple of weeks of the season, the young guys learned how to play basketball without their superstar.

Sometimes players can get a little too star-struck, even on an NBA team. They let themselves get a little too content orbiting their star player. We’ve seen this from the Mavericks several times this year. Luka goes out for a breather, and everybody left on the court defers to the next guy. It’s why we have an entire collection plays this year where Delon Wright passes to a shooter who has no time to shoot. Lots of airballs, lots of shot-clock violations, and most of them avoidable if anybody on the floor is willing to assert themselves.

With Luka out for even a couple of weeks, there’s nobody lurking on the bench to save you. If the players left don’t learn how to take big shots, they’ll lose a lot of games. Period. On the other hand, if these players learn to step up and take command of the game while Luka’s out, then when he comes back, much like the young Heat players, these talented Mavericks might just have an extra edge to them when Luka’s off the court.

I’ll never argue that an injury is a good thing, but I will argue that once an injury happens, there are ways to create something positive in its aftermath. The Heat did that to start the season, and it’s helped make them one of the top teams in the NBA. The Mavericks are already one of the top teams in the NBA, but proving that they’re still a winning team without their best player could propel them to another tier of excellence once Luka gets healthy again.

DONUT 5: Jalen Brunson: Stepping Up Does Not Mean Stepping Carelessly

Some calls didn’t go the young point guard’s way on Saturday, and that sucks. But Brunson ultimately has to mitigate his (often useful) confidence with a little self-awareness. To put it bluntly: Luka Dončić is on pace to get at least a few MVP votes this year, and even he’s struggling to draw big foul calls in close late-game situations. Brunson cannot reliably drive into four defenders and hope that a foul will bail him out.

He also cannot afford to drive inside and challenge Jimmy Butler in late-game situations. Butler has the size, tenacity, and star status to tilt that matchup almost every time. I can live with the missed three-pointer at the end of overtime. He was wide-open, he took a good shot, and I believe he’d have nailed that shot if he had a second chance at it. He’s a good player, and a reliable hand most of the time. This isn’t about that, even though it might be the lasting image of Saturday night’s loss.

Carlisle defended Brunson's extended crunch-time minutes, saying, "I thought he played extremely well ... He went in in the first half, played a brief stint. I think he was the only guy on the team who was a plus at the time, so we went back with him. We felt, starting in the second half, he was the only way to go for us.”

All of that may be true, but unfortunately, what I’ll remember instead is how overmatched he looked every time he tried to do too much, and how it often "too much" started by doing too little. When the Mavericks had a couple of four-point leads, he didn’t know how to protect or extend them.

I’ll remember his multiple clutch-time turnovers. I’ll remember that he too often nursed the clock instead of moving the ball. Mostly, I'll remember that each time he hesitated, he made it impossible to make the best decision, no matter how decisive he was late in the clock.

You don’t replace Luka by trying to be an undersized Carmelo Anthony, and we traded Harrison Barnes to the Kings for a reason. I expect Brunson to improve - or I expect to see him on the bench during crunch time pretty soon.

DONUT 6: Delon Wright - You Up?

I know Delon’s Wright was only officially inactive for the Sacramento and Detroit games, but his limited minutes against the Heat looked like part caution, and part necessity. He just didn’t have much in his roughly nine minutes of action.

If he’s still hurt, of course, it’s a fool's errand to rush him back, and it could do more long-term damage than a couple of tough losses will this week. On the other hand, if he’s healthy, but just a little rusty, there’s no better time than right now for Wright to start his breakout stretch of the season.

There were high hopes that more minutes and more responsibility would catapult his game to the next level. I’d say that he’s played well, and he’s clearly a valuable addition to this Mavericks team, but he’s struggled more than anyone to demonstrate that he’s ready to be a top-five player on a playoff team. He was penciled in as the third guy behind Luka and Porzingis, but there’s a chance he’s slipped behind Hardaway Jr., Dwight Powell, Jalen Brunson, and even Finney-Smith in the team’s hierarchy.

I believe Delon Wright has the tools to fill a much bigger role than the one he’s carved out so far, but I believe his hesitation as a floor general is why someone like Brunson can snatch minutes away from him right now. 

Brunson may make some young-guy mistakes, but he’s willing to take on that pressure when everyone else is afraid to. If Wright can come back, and he can develop that fearless streak, his size and skill set should make him a far more versatile option in crunch time while Luka’s healing. Delon, more than anyone, could benefit from the weeks that Luka sits out—but only if he seizes the opportunity.

DONUT 7: Kristaps Porzingis is Figuring Stuff Out

Porzingis has already made this defense better. His interior defense is boosted by his ability to reach into the stratosphere to block shots, bother shooters, and even get the occasional crafty steal. Even when his offense isn’t humming, he’s found a way to block that out, and keep his focus on the other end of the floor.

One of the things that Porzingis is struggling with most is his stroke from outside. Over the last six games, he’s gone 7-of-30 from 3-point range (23.3 percent). I know why he needs to keep shooting those shots. Part of what made him such an attractive trade target is what he can do to space the floor from the mid-range and beyond.

Still, there’s no arguing that Porzingis has been at his best when he’s an opportunistic finisher around the rim. Drives to the basket have yielded dunks, more free throws, and a lot of nifty put-backs when his teammates' shots aren’t falling. 

I love the idea of another 7-foot big who can splash threes from anywhere, but I also get really hyped up when Porzingis sneaks around a box-out and jams home an offensive rebound. Threes are fun, dunks are fun, but put-back dunks are demoralizing. 

Just ask the Detroit Pistons.

DONUT 8: Seth Curry’s Signature Game

There are a lot of nights that I wonder why the Mavericks signed Seth Curry. Not because he’s doing anything wrong, but because he can’t seem to earn the trust of the team that signed him. Let’s be clear about this: Seth Curry wasn’t part of a trade dump (like Jackson), he wasn’t a holdover from years of losing, and he wasn’t a low-cost reclamation project.

He was brought here for a reason. Are he and the Mavs fulfilling that reason? DBcom will study the situation coming up later today.

DONUT 9: Two-Minute Report for What?

On Saturday morning the NBA had to use the Final 2-Minute Report to apologize to the Miami Heat. Turns out LeBron James committed a foul during the in-bounds attempt on the final play of the game. That should’ve led to a couple of free throws for Miami, plus possession of the ball. The refs then somehow missed a foul on the final shot of the game (a three-point attempt). If you’re counting, that’s five free throws that evaporated in a single bungled possession. The Miami Heat lost the game by three points.

You might recall that the Mavs got a similar apology after their first game against the Lakers. Instead of an offensive foul call on Dwight Howard on their final possession, the Lakers wound up with a game-tying three, and an eventual overtime victory.

Sunday morning, the Mavericks got another apology (for one of those aforementioned Brunson drives late in the game). With the Mavs down 119-118, Jalen drove inside, faked the defender (Kendrick Nunn) off his feet, and then Nunn fell onto Jalen’s back as he attempted a shot. Brunson was awarded no free throws. 

“Sorry,” says the NBA. But it doesn’t change that instead of shooting for a tie (and possibly the lead) the Mavericks were forced to foul the Heat at the other end.

Insult to injury, in a game that was already decided, the Refs put 0.1 seconds back on the clock in overtime and sent the Heat to the charity stripe in a truly insulting fashion.

It’s bad enough to watch the refs make huge mistake after huge mistake in key situations this season, but for guys who got it wrong so often, it’s strange that they made sure to get it right when it led to window-dressing free throws at the end of a brutal game in Dallas. The Mavs lost their best player to an injury, they battled back from a 24-point deficit, they had key calls go against them late that cost them possessions and points, and then the refs added salt to a rough night by putting the Heat on the line for no viable reason.

There’s a saying that’s floating around the internet that I cannot help but repeat here: an apology without change is just manipulation. The NBA is pretending that transparency and accuracy are important to them, but not important enough to do more to get things right in the first place.

Donut 10: Way-TooEarly Trade Speculation

Hey, I know the NBA’s trade deadline isn’t until February 6, but if we’re already talking about MVP favorites (a vote which is even further off), then please allow DBcom (and me) my early look at a couple of trade possibilities.

I'm working on the story for later this week, and what I'm looking at is Courtney Lee (easy call) and Tim Hardaway Jr. (playing well enough to make it a tough call.

Some way-too-early trade speculation, coming soon.

DONUT 11: What’s On Tap?

I touched on this a little bit earlier, but what’s the Mavericks face next is the No. 1 team in the entire NBA, the Milwaukee Bucks. .... tonight in Wisconsin.

Dallas is in Milwaukee (without Luka Dončić) to take on the best. The Bucks have won 18 games in a row, they have the league’s best point differential at 13.6 points (a full 4.1 points per game better than the Lakers), and they also happen to have the league’s reigning MVP.

So far, not a single player in the NBA (no, not even our Luka) has done anything to overtake Giannis as the best player in the league. Giannis has an unheard of PER of 34.23, he’s better on offense this year than he was last year (which was already fantastic), and he’s still probably the best defensive player in the game.

He’s even hitting 33 percent of his threes this season, and he’s hitting over 37 percent of his threes over the last 10 games.

This game would’ve been a monster challenge even with Luka on the court for the Mavericks. With Luka back in Dallas nursing his ankle, this could be the toughest game for the Mavericks all season. Rest assured, if the Mavericks get down by 24 points in this game, Giannis is not the type of player to allow a dramatic comeback. His killer instinct has come a long way since his doe-eyed rookie season. 

Sorry for the dour news, but If the Mavs don’t show up with a little killer instinct of their own, this one could get out of hand fast.

Tim Hardaway Jr. summed it up perfectly saying, "Milwaukee is a tough team. They are undefeated at home, I believe, or have a winning streak so ... It’s not going to be easy and that’s a playoff team. We have to do a great job of just going in there and having that mindset of playing basketball and playing hard."

DONUT 12: The Final Word

"I know we got ourselves in a big hole, but you know, we got some dogs. We just can’t wait to get hit in the mouth first and then respond, you know? We gotta go out there and compete for 48 minutes." - Tim Hardaway Jr. after falling short of a 24-point comeback against the Heat.