What Will The Atlanta Hawks Rotation Look Like In The Play-In Matchup With Chicago?

The NBA regular season is over and the play-in tournament will commence on Tuesday night, starting with the two Western Conference Matchups. The Atlanta Hawks are playing in their third consecutive play-in tournament and while that is not where they want to be in the postseason, the Hawks have shined in the play-in, going 3-0 over the last two seasons. If Atlanta wins both games, they have a date with the No. 1 Boston Celtics waiting on them. 

Atlanta has been one of the most injured teams in the NBA this season and is going to be missing some key players for this play-in tournament and potentially for the series with Boston if it comes to that. Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu will not be able to play this week and Saddiq Bey suffered a season-ending injury last month. Atlanta opted to not convert forward Vit Krejci to a standard contract, keeping him on a two-way deal, and making him ineligible for the postseason. With Johnson, Bey, and Krejci not able to play, the Hawks have a problem at forward. 

So that is the question: what will Quin Snyder do with the Hawks playoff rotation on Wednesday vs Chicago and maybe beyond?

With these guys hurt or missing, Snyder has used a starting lineup of Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, De'Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Clint Capela. This is almost certainly going to be the starting lineup for however long the Hawks are in the playoffs and I think all of these guys are going to play at least 30 minutes. 

Snyder was already the head coach by the time Atlanta faced the Miami Heat in last year's play-in game and looking back at that game, Snyder mostly used an eight-man rotation, with Jalen Johnson coming off the bench for 14 minutes. Young and Murray played 37 of 48 minutes, Hunter played 23 minutes, Capela 28 minutes, and former Atlanta Hawk John Collins played 22 minutes. The three guys off the bench who got a lot of minutes were Bey (31 minutes, Bogdanovic (26 minutes), and Okongwu (20 minutes). 

This is where things get interesting for Snyder. He is not operating with the same level of depth that he had in the game against the Heat last season and is going to have some decisions to make. 

To start, I think Young and Murray will play either the same amount of minutes or maybe more. On top of that, I don't think both will be off the floor at any point in time. Unless there is injury or foul trouble, I don't think there will be many minutes for Kobe Bufkin or Trent Forrest. 

Capela is another guy I think is going to have to play a lot of minutes. Now, the Hawks have Bruno Fernando, who will get the backup center minutes, but Snyder will have to be careful with how many minutes Fernando might get. He plays well at times, but can also be brutal on the defensive end of the floor, as evidenced in yesterday's loss vs the Pacers. I also worry about him losing rebounding battles with Bulls backup center Andre Drummond. 

If Fernando plays well, he could get 18-20 minutes. If not, he can't be on the floor for long periods of time. Still, Fernando is one guy that is pretty locked in for a spot in the rotation. 

What about the forward spots?

The other guy that I am confident will see some minutes will be Garrison Matthews. Matthews was fourth in the NBA in  -point percentage (44%) and can get hot from deep. Now, that is Matthews's biggest skill set and he does not bring much more to the floor, but the Hawks could use his three-point shooting and live with some of the defensive struggles. 

If Snyder only runs an eight-man rotation, who gets that last spot?

There are three options. If Wesley Matthews is healthy, I would bet on him being a guy that Snyder counts on. He is a veteran player who is still solid (most nights) on defense and has shown the ability to hit some three-point shots. Matthew's shot 34.8% from three this season, but he has been on the injury report for the past few games. He might not play a lot of minutes, but Snyder might rely on the veteran player in a must-win game. 

The other two options are AJ Griffin and Mouhamed Gueye. Griffin was not in the rotation for much of the year and then got injured, but he has played in the last two games since coming back. If Atlanta was fully healthy, I don't think Griffin would be in the discussion, but they might need his size and shooting ability. 

Gueye is another player who has been injured and out of the rotation for almost the whole season, but has gotten in the last two games, scoring 18 points and grabbing nine rebounds. Gueye is an intriguing rookie with length and athleticism but lacks experience. I doubt he plays tomorrow, but Snyder might use him to guard a guy like DeMar DeRozan. 

If I had to guess, Young, Murray, Hunter, Bogdanovic, and Capela will start, while Fernando, Garrison Matthews, and Wesley Matthews get minutes off the bench. It is possible that Snyder will try Griffin or Gueye, and maybe even try Bufkin for some brief minutes at guard, but that is how I see the rotation playing out on Wednesday night vs Chicago.