Did the Cincinnati Reds Miss Out on Tyler Glasnow?

The Reds expressed some interest in the 30-year-old this offseason.

Author:
Jeff Carr
Updated:
Dec 19, 2023 12:34 PM EST
Original:
Dec 19, 2023

In this story:

Tyler Glasnow was on the Reds' radar before he was traded to the Dodgers last week.

Some thought Cincinnati should've traded for the 30-year-old, even if it meant giving up key prospects. Let’s take a deeper look at the deal and see if it would've made sense for the Reds.

The Rays traded Glasnow and veteran outfielder Manuel Margot to the Dodgers for right handed pitcher Ryan Pepiot and outfield prospect Jonny DeLuca. The Rays also sent the Dodgers $4 million. The deal was contingent upon the Dodgers signing Glasnow to a contract extension. They ultimately signed him to a 5-year, $136.5 million deal that includes an option in the final year.

Glasnow had one year remaining on his previous contract. That means the new deal adds three guaranteed years of $90 million (2025-27), and an option for 2028. The Dodgers can exercise the option for $30 million. If they decline, Glasnow can choose to play for the Dodgers in 2028 for $20 million. All told, the contract extension comes out to $136.5 million.

Let’s begin with the contract. That is a deal you can expect to be comparable to the one Blake Snell will eventually sign. Both Snell and Glasnow were once teammates, but they are very different. Snell is the reigning National League Cy Young winner after a brilliant 2023 season that included 32 starts and a MLB-leading 2.25 ERA. Glasnow started 21 games (career-best) last season, posting a 3.53 ERA. Glasnow had a better strikeout-to-walk ration, but did so in 60-less innings than Snell. Glasnow also threw a career-high 120 innings.

The talent is there for the Dodgers' latest addition, but durability is a big question-mark. The Reds were not going to give him $30 million a year for the next three years to find out if he can stay healthy enough to be their ace.

Now let’s move to the players traded in the deal.

Some have said the Dodgers got a bargain, but Baseball Trade Values disagrees. In fact, they rate this as a win for the Rays.

Pepiot actually had more trade value, by himself, than Glasnow did. Margot’s trade value was in the negative, while Deluca was just under $5 million. Overall, Baseball Trade Values has this as the Rays receiving $30 million in trade value, while the Dodgers received $21 million.

Pepiot is no longer rookie eligible and has pitched in 17 career games over the past two seasons. He’s got a decent fastball and a good changeup, but really doesn’t have a reliable third pitch. He's still seen as a starter and has a good baseline with which to develop from.

Deluca had a cup of coffee in the majors in 2023, but really didn’t have much of a sample size to glean anything from. Scouts are mixed as to his future value and he’s not necessarily seen a as top prospect.

To put it in Reds terms, it would've been similar to sending Nick Lodolo and Jay Allen to the Rays in exchange for Glasnow. That seems like an overpay.

Ultimately, the front office deserves credit for not making a move that would've been questionable at best. In fact, you could argue Nick Krall was smart to stay away.

He needs to add a starting pitcher, but he was wise not to overpay for Glasnow.

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