What the Atlanta Braves are getting in lefty reliever Ray Kerr

The Atlanta Braves made another late-evening trade, this one on Friday night, as they acquired LHP Ray Kerr, DH Matt Carpenter, and cash from the San Diego Padres in exchange for minor league outfielder Drew Campbell. 

(Fun note: The Braves Today staff were almost all en route to our holiday party when the trade was announced, so that was fun trying to find someone who was available to quickly write the story.)

The deal was obviously intended by Alex Anthopoulos to acquire the 29 year-old Kerr, a reliever with six years of contractual control and a minor league option remaining. 

So what are the Braves getting in Kerr? 

Look past the conventional statistics

On paper, it's not immediately evident why Atlanta would prioritize Kerr (especially at the cost of Matt Carpenter's $5.5M 2024 salary): 1-1 record & 5.06 ERA across 29 major league appearances spread between the last two seasons. He picked up 38 strikeouts, 13 walks, and 6 homeruns across his 32 MLB innings. 

It's what he can actually do on the mound

Kerr's a lower-slot lefty with exceptional velocity - his fastball averaged 96 mph last season, above-average in MLB but one of the better figures you'll find for left-handers. 

That fastball's also unique in that, unlike most four-seam fastballs, it has a surprising amount of horizontal movement on it - an average of nine inches of break. This is probably owing to his lower arm angle compared to most, but it's still something that's rather uncommon amongst four-seam fastballs in MLB. 

The curveball he throws, which comes in at just under 83 mph, is supercharged by that lower arm slot, as well. It devotes almost all of its spin to the vertical movement, giving it over 42 inches of drop, but because of that lower arm slot and release point, ends up with significant two plane break. 

He obliterates lefties

...And that curveball's the reason he excels against lefty hitters. For his career, lefties have only a .506 OPS against Kerr, with two extra-base hits in 44 plate appearances. 

Kerr's curveball allowed a .143 batting average and .262 slugging against last season, and those weren't flukes - the expected batting average was still just .179 with an expected slugging of .248. Over half of the swings against it (53.8%) didn't connect at all, and it picked up a strikeout in just over half of all at-bats. 

But there's still some work to do - the fastball got hit at times, specifically when the location wasn't dialed in. The fastball gave up a .339 batting average, with most of that damage being done by right-handed hitters who saw more fastballs and less curveballs (and the occasional changeup - Kerr threw 24 of them last season). 

What about the money? 

Kerr's not owed a lot - debuting in 2022 and still under one year of service time, he'll make the league minimum for a while. He's not arbitration eligible until 2027 and not a free agent until 2030. 

Matt Carpenter, though, is where the money came in. He's making $5.5M on the final season of a two-year deal he signed after the 2022 season. He absolutely raked for the Yankees as a DH in 2022, batting .305/.412/727 in 47 games, but didn't live up to the deal in his first season in San Diego, batting only .176 with a .319 slug. 

There's not a role for Carpenter on this 2024 Braves team, but there also wasn't one for Marco Gonzales, Evan White, or Max Stassi and Atlanta managed to find suitors for each of them in the trade market rather quickly. 

The Padres are reportedly including $1.5M in cash to offset some of the salary, leaving Atlanta with $4M in commitments for Carpenter for 2024, but they're already working to find a suitor and he's expected to be flipped within days. 

Ultimately, this is a classic Alex Anthopoulos trade: target an underperforming player in a less-than-ideal situation with the intention of making some tweaks to unlock years of quality (and cost-controlled) production, taking on a bad contract (that you'll flip) to do it. 

Atlanta's best contract might be the one given to Alex Anthopoulos

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Atlanta's best contract might be the one given to Alex Anthopoulos

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The only disappointing thing about this trade is that someone named "Ray Kerr" can't hit...because, c'mon. That would have been the cherry on top. 

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