How Will UCF Attack Duke's Defense?
How will Gus Malzahn and the UCF offensive coaching staff go after the Duke defense? There are some interesting points about the history of Duke head coach Mike Elko and his defensive coordinator Robb Smith regarding what they already accomplished in one season.
Here are five questions with projections for what will happen when these squads come together on the gridiron.
How well will the Knights pass protect with just the offensive line?
This might be the biggest question of the game and it’s really hard to say. Duke has 30 sacks on the season and also blitzes. If UCF quarterback John Rhys Plumlee can get to his hot reads quickly, it could leave Duke to simply play zone and hope for the best.
This is a very important category that’s up in the air because it’s not just on the big guys up front, but Plumlee as well. He has to see the blitzes coming and know what to do with the football immediately thereafter.
Will UCF use aggressive play calling when Duke blatantly and openly crowds the line of scrimmage and/or plays bump and run coverage?
Yes, absolutely. Look for Plumlee to go up top and try to connect for big passing plays. Not many cornerbacks can handle Kobe Hudson and Javon Baker during one-on-one coverage. Plumlee will let it rip.
Additionally, look for UCF to have some underneath throws that take advantage of man coverage as well. These will be available to Plumlee and the offense via checks at the line of scrimmage. It’s common for any college offense to do this, but with players like Hudson, Baker and freshman Xavier Townsend, there are chances for any one of them to make plays after the catch and turn a five-yard pass into a 50-yard gain.
Catching a linebacker in coverage against tight end Alec Holler could lead to a big play as well.
Knights come out passing or come out running?
Both.
Malzahn’s offense is going to adjust as Duke shows its formations and blitzes. Elko likes to bring pressure, so it will be up to the offensive line and Plumlee to recognize looks and go with the original play call, or audible. That does not change just because it’s a bowl game.
What could change would be new formations and/or personnel within a formation that other UCF players utilized before. This is part of the long bowl game prep that every team participating in a bowl game gets.
If a defense is not ready for a particular formation, that’s when a bad matchup can happen like running back Johnny Richardson being one-on-one with a linebacker on an angle route. Big advantage for the Knights.
How will UCF run the football?
Feeding running backs Isaiah Bowser and JJ Harvey with inside running calls is a staple of the offense. That will continue but look for some wrinkles to that type of play calling as well. Malzahn has a history of coming up with something special in big games.
It might not be something that looks all that different to the naked eye. Just a change with a blocking scheme, ever so slightly, that benefits UCF versus this Duke defense. Could even be just focusing on attacking one particular Duke defender. As long as it keeps the yards and points coming, it's all good.
Whatever it might be, expect UCF’s offense to attack with the running game and use run-pass option plays off of that.
Can Plumlee be a difference maker with his legs?
Plumlee should run for at least 75 yards, assuming he's truly healthy.
Duke’s defense is sound. That being the case, they have not faced a quarterback with the sheer athleticism of Plumlee. Against North Carolina and star redshirt freshman quarterback Drake Maye, the Blue Devils gave up 18 carries for 70 yards.
Maye is a good athlete, but no place near as fast as Plumlee, nor as explosive. It will be surprising if Plumlee does not have at least one long run in this ball game.
If Duke struggles with basic tackling against Plumlee, there could be an even heavier dose of fakes and different types of run-pass option plays that also attempt to get Richardson, running backs overall, and the receivers and tight ends in space for easy receptions. UCF has several counter plays to the runs for Plumlee.
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