The Locksmith's Pick Six: Week 10
So the College Football Playoff selection committee landed on Tennessee as the No. 1 team in the first rankings and Las Vegas oddsmaker promptly responded . . . by making the Vols an 8-point underdog at Georgia on Saturday.
Who do you trust more?
The sorting out process for the four-team playoff begins this week -- maybe -- with at least one of the remaining six unbeaten teams absorbing a loss since Tennessee and Georgia play. Is Alabama in danger of slipping out of the playoff picture at LSU? How will unbeaten Clemson handle a trip to improving Notre Dame?
If the Locksmith had the answers in advance his record wouldn't be what it is against the spread.
On to the games:
Penn State over INDIANA, giving 14
Let's be honest: The Nittany Lions are headed to a hollow 10-2 season, having lost the only two games of consequence on their schedule. They excel at beating beat teams and Indiana -- which was crushed by Cincinnati and lost to both Rutgers and Nebraska -- is a bad team. Whether Sean Clifford or highly touted frosh Drew Allar starts at QB for We Are, Penn State should have things its own way here.
Maryland over WISCONSIN, getting 5
Good news for the 6-2 Terps: QB Taulia Tagovailoa is due back after missing the Northwestern game with a sprained knee -- and then having last week off with a bye to further mend. That's a huge plus for Maryland. Not buying into the resurgence of either Wisconsin or QB Graham Mertz (one good game) just yet. Badgers' four wins have come at the expense of Illinois State, New Mexico State, Northwestern and Purdue.
TCU over Texas Tech, giving 9 1/2
Anyone know why TCU -- favored by 7 last week against West Virginia -- threw a 29-yard touchdown pass with 20 seconds to play for a 10-point lead (and the cover)? Don't know why, don't care, but love the Horned Frogs for that. Have to keep your betting fans happy. The feeling here that QB Max Duggan and company, back home, are feeling a bit disrespected after the first playoff rankings. The Red Raiders can be dangerous at times but they're also sloppy and mistake prone (15 interceptions this year. Show time for TCU.
GEORGIA over Tennessee, giving 8
It sure seems as if the oddsmakers are begging us to take Tennessee. Not falling for it, especially since the belief here is that the Bulldogs have been sleepwalking until their next big challenge. We saw what they did with their first one -- routing an Oregon team that has won seven straight games since a 49-3 pummeling. Offense is the name of the game now, but defense still matters, and Georgia is very good defensively.
BOISE STATE over Byu, giving 7 1/2
Two teams headed in opposite directions. Broncos have gotten on an impressive roll of late, highlighted by a 511-yard offensive performance last week. That's six wins in the past seven games for Boise. What has happened at BYU? We were told this team had toughness. It is soft. We were told Jaylen Hall was the program's next good QB. He is mediocre. The low point was last week's home loss to East Carolina, the Cougars' fourth straight defeat.
Washington State over STANFORD, taking 5
Stanford suspended its mascot. That's how things are going in Palo Alto. The QB situation is a mess, as is the depleted RB situation, and the past two games Stanford has scored 28 points --thanks largely to seven field goals. Not sure what happened to the Cougars' promising start or QB Cameron Ward, but 20 of his 31 pass attempts last week were five yards or less. Let the kid loose. He has talent.
Last week vs. spread: 2-4
Season to date vs. Spread: 23-31
Home team in CAPS
