The Locksmith Tackles Bowl Season
Here's hoping a strong final weekend of the regular season -- 5-1 vs. the spread, 47-31 overall for the year -- carries into the bowl season that starts Friday.
Commentary has been limited due to the volume of games, but they're all here with picks against the spread, with the goal being a third straight winning bowl season to go along with three straight winning regular seasons.
Bahamas Bowl
Friday, Dec. 17
Toledo over Middle Tennessee, giving 10
Rockets were a few points from a 10-win season, including a 3-point loss to Notre Dame. Sorry, but college football is not better in the Bahamas.
Cure Bowl
Friday, Dec. 17
Northern Illinois over Coastal Carolina, taking 10 1/2
Huskies can frustrate Coastal with their time-eating ground game. Best advice on this one: Pass until a better game comes along.
Boca Raton Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18
Appalachian State over Western Kentucky, giving 3
The Hilltoppers are as pass crazy as teams get. Problem is, that's all they can do. App State's potent ground game will get 300 yards here, control the clock and improve the school's all-time bowl record to 7-0.
New Mexico Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18
Fresno State over UTEP, giving 11
First QB Jake Haener was leaving Fresno. Now he's staying. RBs coach Lee Marks will take over as head coach with Jeff Tedford bolting for Washington. UTEP hasn't been to a bowl since 2014 and this was just the Miners' second winning season since 2005.
Independence Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18
UAB over BYU, taking 7
This one is a nod to UAB coach Bill Clark, whose teams play good, tough, consistent football regardless of the opponent.
Lending Tree Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18
Liberty over Eastern Michigan, giving 9 1/2
A coin flip between the wildly-inconsistent and turnover-prone Flames and an Eagles team that can't run the ball or stop the run. Liberty QB Malik Willis should be the best player on the field -- if he wants to be.
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18
Utah State over Oregon State, taking 7
Serious question: Will the attendance for this game exceed the live studio audience Kimmel has for his talk show? Aggies demolished San Diego State in the MWC title game, which was a better league this year than the Pac-12.
New Orleans Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18
Louisiana over Marshall, giving 5
Pick against the Sun Belt champion Cajuns -- 4-1 in this game all time -- at your own peril. New coach Michael Desormeaux inherits a Louisiana team that has won 12 straight and essentially gets a home game for his debut.
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Monday, Dec. 20
Tulsa over Old Dominion, giving 9 1/2
Nothing matches the intensity of two 6-6 teams going at it in a beach resort. Tulsa lost to UC-Davis this year. But Old Dominion beat just one bowl eligible team (Middle Tennessee).
Potato Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 21
Kent State over Wyoming, taking 3
Wyoming has the ugliest uniforms in the FBS ranks and went 2-6 in the Mountain West. I'd pick anyone against them. By the way, is Boise in December really a reward -- or punishment for mediocrity during the year?
Frisco Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 21
San Diego State over UTSA, taking 3
Quality of competition should count for something. Tossing the Aztec's MWC game clunker, when a flu-ridden squad was a no try.
Armed Forces Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 22
Missouri over Army, taking 3 1/2
Hate picking against Army, but Mizzou showed some improvement late in the year. The extra prep time should help the Tigers prepare for Army's option.
Frisco Football Classic
Thursday, Dec. 23
North Texas over Miami of Ohio, taking 3
The late addition to the bowl schedule -- and not a moment too soon. How could we have gotten by without another showdown between 6-6 teams in Frisco, Texas? North Texas rates the edge based on momentum. Mean Green won their final five games to get to bowl eligibility after a 1-6 start.
Gasparilla Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 23
Florida over UCF, giving 6 1/2
UCF has the motivation but the Gators rate a significant talent edge. And even Florida's erratic offense will be able to move the ball and score against a weak Knights defense.
Hawaii Bowl
Friday, Dec. 24
Memphis over Hawaii, giving 7
Rainbow Warriors usually hold their own in this game -- the operative word being usually. But a combination of mass defections and a brutally bad pass defense should set the table for a big game by Memphis QB Seth Hanigan.
Camellia Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 25
Georgia State over Ball State, giving 4 1/2
Just not feeling any love for the MAC this year. Georgia State's rugged ground game will be too much for the Cardinals to handle.
Quick Lane Bowl
Monday, Dec. 27
Western Michigan over Nevada, giving 4 1/2
With Nevada QB Carson Strong opting out, a once-intriguing game with shootout potential now tilts heavily toward Western Michigan (a team that beat ACC champ Pitt). Hard to see the Wolf Pack keeping pace with Western's potent offense without Strong.
Military Bowl
Monday, Dec. 27
East Carolina over Boston College, taking 3
Just don't like the way the Eagles are trending, with six losses in the final eight games to close out the year (and seven bowl losses in the last eight appearances). ECU's offense could not get untracked against Cincinnati but is capable of giving BC fits -- in a game BC cannot be happy to be playing in.
Birmingham Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28
Houston over Auburn, taking 3
It's always a risk going against an SEC team in the postseason --especially one essentially playing at home. But the Tigers stumble into this off four straight losses and without Bo Nix at QB -- and keeping up with Houston's firepower will prove to be too much.
First Responder Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28
Air Force over Louisville, taking 1 1/5
A simple belief here: Louisville does not have the discipline to slow down Air Force's (at times dominant) triple option.
Liberty Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28
Mississippi State over Texas Tech, giving 8 1/2
With a new staff and the program in flux, Red Raiders may bot be up to the challenge of QB Will Rogers and the revenge that MSU coach Mike Leach will be seeking from a program that fired him for "a defiant act of insubordination." Thinking Leach wants to run it up against a vulnerable group of Red Raiders.
Holiday Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28
UCLA over NC State, taking 1
If UCLA's leaky pass defense can slow NC State QB Devin Leary at all -- a big ask -- QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson could have a big game. Time for Chip Kelly to start earning his keep.
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28
Minnesota over West Virginia, giving 3 1/2
Impressed with the way Minnesota finished the season. Add that to a solid defense, an experienced QB and a game in Big Ten country and it sounds like a bad recipe for a mediocre WVU team.
Fenway Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29
Virginia over SMU, giving 2 1/2
Let's be honest: It's hard to get revved up over a game between two teams that will have new coaches next year playing in a baseball stadium in late December. But at least Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall is sticking around for this.
Pinstripe Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29
Maryland over Virginia Tech, giving 1
When in doubt, go with the team with the better QB (Tua Tagovailoa) and a full-time head coach. Not sure this trend of playing football games in baseball stadiums in the Northeast in late December is the home run bowl organizers think it is.
Cheez-It Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29
Clemson over Iowa State, taking 1 1/5
Even with a skeleton coaching staff, Dabo Swinney has enough talent to get by an Iowa State team that has been hard to get a handle on this year. Tigers finished the year strong, with the offense finally starting to hold its own after the defense carried this team for most of the year.
Alamo Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29
Oklahoma over Oregon, giving 4 1/2
Lincoln Riley may be gone but the Sooners rate a superior talent -- and toughness -- edge. Not sure how much Mario Cristobal will be missed on game day for Oregon, as Miami fans will soon find out.
Duke's Mayo Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30
North Carolina over South Carolina, giving 8 1/2
A year from now the Gamecocks might be ready for this. For now, even against a porous Tar Heels defense, they will struggle to keep up with UNC's firepower.
Music City Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30
Tennessee over Purdue, giving 4 1/2
As if practically playing a home game wasn't enough of an advantage for the Vols, Purdue stars David Bell and George Karlaftis have opted out of this bowl game. Boilermakers' defense showed improvement, but Vols dual threat QB Hendon Hooker could have a big game without having to worry about Karlaftis.
Peach Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30
Michigan State over Pittsburgh, giving 1 1/2
Going on the assumption here that Pitt QB Kenny Pickett will opt out as he readies for the NFL Draft -- missing out on a chance to throw for 500 yards against the worst pass defense in North America. If Pickett plays, Pitt is the pick. If not, Spartans should have their way in this one.
Las Vegas Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30
Wisconsin over Arizona State, giving 7
It's a bit worrisome that the Badgers finished the season with a clunker in a game they needed to win, but it's more difficult picking a Pac-12 team to beat any quality opponent. Wisconsin's defense and physical offense should rule the day.
Gator Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31
Texas A&M over Wake Forest, giving 5
Not sure Wake has seen a defense as quick, athletic and physical as A&M's -- and that was after Pitt manhandled Sam Hartman & Co. in the ACC title game. Originally had this penciled in as a double-digit line so giving just five seems like a steal. Deacons may be too soft for this.
Sun Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31
Miami over Washington State, giving 2 1/2
With Manny Diaz gone, it's addition by subtraction on the sidelines for the 'Canes. Looks like Miami has its quarterback of the future in Tyler Van Dyke, who made huge strides after taking over. The concern with Miami, as always in games like this, is motivation.
Arizona Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31
Boise State over Central Michigan, giving 13 1/2
Broncos looked to finally hit their stride before a season-ending loss to San Diego State and they did win four road games this year. If quality of competition matters, this is a game Boise should be well prepared to win.
Cotton Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31
Cincinnati over Alabama, taking 13 1/2
Given the way the Tide has play far too many close games this year, and with the thought that Nick Saban's squad peaked against Georgia, the Bearcats can be competitive here. Not predicting a Cincy upset, but QB Desmond Ridder can poke some holes in that Alabama defense.
Orange Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31
Michigan over Georgia, taking 8
Let's see how quickly the Bulldogs get their swagger back after the Alabama beatdown. Hard not to like the way Michigan comes into this, especially with the way the defense is playing. Wolverines need to solve Georgia's defense if they have any upset hopes.
Outback Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1
Arkansas over Penn State, taking 2 1/2
Hogs have been battle tested all year and have come through it in solid fashion. Not sure what Penn State has done to inspire much confidence other than to keep some challenging games close. Arkansas rates a huge edge here in game-day coaching as well.
Citrus Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1
Kentucky over Iowa, giving 3
SEC speed and talent vs. Big Ten brawn -- and plodding offense. With Iowa leading rusher Tyler Goodson opting out that makes the Hawkeyes even more predictable than usual. We have found out you cannot count on clunky QB Spencer Petras to carry the load for Iowa.
Fiesta Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1
Notre Dame over Oklahoma State, giving 2
Marcus Freeman's debut as Irish coach comes after his defense allowed just 23 points to its last four opponents. The key is whether Notre Dame can generate anything on the ground against a strong OSU defense, because Notre Dame's opportunistic defense will likely force Cowboys QB Spencer Sanders into some costly mistakes.
Rose Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1
Utah over Ohio State, taking 6 1/2
Trends matter, and the way Utah closed the season compared to Ohio State is striking. Utes will definitely be motivated for this as well. Will Ohio State? Still waiting for the Buckeyes to flex their supposed offensive muscle against a quality defense. OSU's gaudy offensive stats are largely a byproduct of some very bad defensive opponents.
Sugar Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1
Mississippi over Baylor, taking 1
Kudos to Lane Kiffin for a job well done, especially the way he has nurtured QB Matt Corral. Bothered by the Bears not scoring a point in the second half of the Big 12 championship game -- as well as their uneven quarterback play. They will need plenty of points to stay with Ole Miss, which should have a significant crowd advantage.
Texas Bowl
Tuesday, January 4
Kansas State over LSU, giving 1
Not sure how LSU reacts to all of the turmoil and to having incoming coach Brian Kelly watching from the pressbox. Too much uncertainty surrounding the Tigers to place faith in them here. Deuce Vaughn can be a difference-maker for the Wildcats, who are capable of throwing in a good one every now and then.
Season vs. spread: 47-31
