A Jersey Guy: Watch out for High Tide in CFB

The loss--at home--to Texas in the second game of the season brought out the Boo Birds.

A lethargic win over hapless South Florida brought the vultures in the area< smelling blood from a team which didn"t have a QB with spark, nor an effective offensive line, nor much overall sizzle.

Roll Tide?  

Hardly, for Alabama coach Nick Saban, who has never gone a three year cycle without winning at least one national championship since he arrived in Tuscaloosa 16 years ago.

The count was 2 going into this season, which saw Alabama drop out of the Top 10 after the two week Texas-USF dip.

Even now, with solid wins at Texas A&M and against Ole Miss and Arkansas, Alabama is still in the hallway at No. 11, not mentioned in anyone's projections of what college football's Final Four might look like after the first week of December.

Since we are two weeks away from the CFP's 'first rankings of the season, let's dive into that subject.

First, a few hard and fast truths: If you are an UNDEFATED Power 5 champion, you will get an invitation to the Final Four dance.

Right now that list includes:

ACC--FSU, North Carolina

Big Ten-Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State

SEC-Georgia

Big 12--Oklahoma
 Pac-12--Washington

What happens if ALL 5 Power 5 conference champions are unbeaten (which has never happened)?

Quick Guess: The ACC would be squeezed out.

But let's deal with a reality check, conference by conferences and then project the CFP semifinal bowls (Rose, Sugar) and the other 4 New Year's Six Bowls (Cotton, Fiesta, Orange, Peach).

Big Ten

Penn State visits Ohio State on Saturday. Michigan visits Penn State on Nov. 11 and Ohio State travels to Michigan on Nov. 25. The winer of Big Ten East must deal with the Big Ten West winner  (probably Iowa) for the last time in December (Big Ten will have 18 team, 1 division next season)

Guess here is that Ohio State and Michigan both beat Penn State and Michigan beats Ohio State. Michigan then beat Iowa, but Ohio State, with just the one road loss has a strong chance of being the second Big Ten team in Final Four.

ACC

FSU finishes 12-0 and faces a once beaten (by Clemson) in the ACC title game. FSU wins that encounter and moves into a playoff slot

SEC

Georgia staggers through the regular season unbeaten, but with a bunch of narrow wins as the Bulldogs adjust to life without TE Brock Bowers.

They then run into once beaten Alabama in the SEC title game--and lose on a last-second field goal. 

Alabama gets the CFP slot and Georgia must sweat it out

Big 12

OU-Texas in a rematch, Texas wins and OU must settler for a Cotton Bowl bid and a third trip to the Dallas area this season because all the other conference runners up have better resumes..

Pac 12

Oregon and Washington in a rematch of their regular season meeting in Seattle (36-33 Washington).  Oregon wins the rematch in Vegas, but Washington must deal  with Georgia, Ohio State  and Oklahoma for a CFP slot.

CFP semifinals

Rose Bowl No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Alabama

Sugar Bowl--No. 2  FSU vs. 3 Ohio 

New Year's Six Bowls

Orange Bowl-- North Carolina vs. Ohio State

Cotton Bowl--Oklahoma vs. Penn State

Fiesta Bowl-Oregon vs. Notre Dame 

Peach Bowl-Washington vs. Tulane