The Outlook Moving Forward: Michigan

Coming off their 31-24 victory over Rutgers, the Spartans travel to Ann Arbor to take on the Michigan Wolverines at 3:30 p.m. on ESPN.

Offense

“(The) Playbook is fully open, operational, and ready to go,” Offensive Line Coach Mark Staten told the Spartan Radio Network before last Saturday night’s game began. Some of the Spartans final numbers were pretty good (22 First Downs, 489 yards gained), some were not (132 yards rushing, 31 total points). The biggest issue from last Saturday was the additional injuries this Offense really cannot afford. Those continued disruptions have kept the Offense from breaking out and producing as the Spartan Nation expected in the first six games, and will leave a cloud of uncertainty over this week's game until we see who actually hits the field Saturday.

Running Back Madre London went down with an ankle injury that was serious enough to keep him out for the rest of the game, and to take the Red Shirt off Delton Williams. That doesn’t bode well for London’s full-speed return anytime soon. LJ Scott wasn’t supposed to play at all Saturday night with a dinged up knee, but was forced into duty late to help close it out. Therefore, Running Back has been added to the list of position groups thinned out greatly as the Offense prepares for the best Defense they’ve seen in 2015.

Jack Allen has led the Offensive Line from the Center position, but has shuffled all around in recent weeks as injuries have piled up around him. Allen went down late Saturday night, tried to play through it, but had to ultimately be lifted and eventually carted into the MSU locker room. Though MSU expects Jack Conklin back for Michigan, and hopefully a healthier Kodi Kieler, the loss of Allen would be crushing to a line that’s been too banged up to play anywhere near their potential this season. This is not how you want to go into a rivalry game on the road against a confident, top end Defense.  Winning at the point of attack on Offense is sure to test all the Spartans’ will Saturday afternoon.

With a hampered MSU certain to be stressed up front, Connor Cook’s performance will be even more important. Cook had a big night at Rutgers when needed most. His play didn’t figure to be so critical to that game beforehand, but the way things fell (see MSU injuries), the result rested on Cook’s shoulders more than anything else. After committing a rare and painful “red zone” turnover, Cook dialed it up a notch to close out the night with 367 yards passing, making the big plays MSU needed to prevail.

Cook is the game's “X-factor” in Ann Arbor this week. “Obviously if your Quarterback goes, you go,” Mark Dantonio said earlier this week when talking about this matchup. Cook’s arm, his head, and most definitely his feet can swing this game’s result more than any single player on the field. Michigan had a good Defense in 2013, in 2014 they have caught fire. Right now they rank 2nd in Total Defense, but one of the toughest things to account for as a Defense is a Quarterback that can make things happen with his feet. Since Michigan is so strong defensively and MSU has been so banged up, look for Cook to scramble and take off more often this week than he has all season. He may need to in order to shake the Michigan Defense out of settling into their comfort zone.

We’ll talk about the history of the rushing battle in this rivalry later, but recognize that MSU may have to pass-to-run this week. The Spartans don’t have a very good Offense right now and are obviously down many key players.  Yet, they still must remain balanced, according to Dantonio. “We have to be able to be balanced on Offense, I think that’s the key to success,” he said firmly, earlier this week. “This can’t just become a game where we’re going to throw the ball 50-55 times.”

The MSU Offense has done a fine job of protecting the ball so far this year. MSU ranks 8th in Turnover Margin and 4th in Turnovers Lost heading into Week 7. But this banged up bunch clearly does not have the horses right now to just line up straight ahead and establish the run at Michigan. It’s not going to be that easy this time around, it’s going to require a bit more work.

That means Co-Coordinators Dave Warner and Jim Bollman must get creative and not end up looking run-first-stubborn. Michigan’s Defense is built around stopping the run and making their opponent operate one dimensional. If you’re looking for a stat to follow for this unit Saturday, check this unit’s overall balance. The success or struggles of this Offense should dictate the game’s final outcome more than anything other unit on the field.

Defense

After settling on Iowa-transfer Jake Rudock at Quarterback, Michigan expected stability early on from a veteran player already familiar with the Big Ten. Things did not start well in the ball security department and though Rudock looks better than he did in early September, the Wolverines rank 97th in the country in Passing Offense, 67th in Turnovers Lost, and 67th in Scoring Offense at this time. They would not be a surprising 5-1 football team without Jim Harbaugh quickly recognizing what his Offense could be good at, and then figuring out how to put them in a regular position to do so.

Michigan doesn’t have a ton of talent on Offense, but Harbaugh and staff have done a nifty job of identifying and installing an Offense to make the most of what they have. Thus, Michigan has the power running game going pretty well right now. The old stretch play is working again, and Running Back De’Veon Smith has paired a powerful posture and patience to lead the ground game that is the heart and soul of this Offense, if not the entire team. Smith carries 230 pounds of power that has been too much for many out manned opponents to arm tackle and has established that the Wolverines ground attack is looking to run through people. The Michigan State Defense is a click above what they’ve faced so far in terms of size and skill, and MSU needs to play up to that fact on Saturday.

They key to stopping Michigan is clear. MSU must stop the run well enough to force Jake Rudock to throw the ball more often than anyone in blue would like him to. Yet, as simple as that seems, teams have had a really hard time doing that so far. It’s time for the Spartans up front on the Defensive Line to step up and stuff Michigan where they need it most. Lawrence Thomas, Damon Knox, and Malik McDowell are all from the state of Michigan. Look for them to have a little something extra Saturday afternoon at the very spot this football game will be won or lost, the point of attack.

If MSU can win at the point of attack and not let Michigan ball carriers break tackles, build momentum, and get the crowd behind them to gain an emotional edge, this unit should have a chance to play their best game of 2015. Michigan is not totally without talent at the skill positions, it’s just that they don’t feature a ton of it and their Quarterback hasn’t thrown the ball that well so far in 2015. They have been a bland, but effective Offense to this point of the season.

They do feature their own “X-factor” on Offense in Tight End, Jake Butt. Butt has been a target early and often in the first half of 2015, building momentum week by week as he’s become Rudock’s go-to man. MSU not only needs to cover Butt when he runs a route, but also should look for ways to disrupt Butt physically and throw him off rhythm. The more MSU limits Butt’s involvement, the more pressure that should place on Rudock’s shoulders.

The rhythm of the Michigan Offense under Jim Harbaugh looks familiar. It looks and feels a lot like the old Bo Schembechler and Lloyd Carr era, though it’s not too far off the look Brady Hoke had during his brief tenure. The Michigan Offense is just playing harder this year than they did in the last few. That’s the real difference in this Michigan team. They’re blocking with more power, running with more intensity, and have quickly carved a way through their schedule well enough to pose a sizable challenge to this Spartan Defense.

MSU will not win this week with the kind of Defensive effort put forth in the past couple weeks. That level of play will get them pushed all over south east Michigan by the end of Saturday night because the Wolverines are showing up to be the more physical team this year. This unit needs to rise to that direct challenge in a big way, starting and finishing the night strong up front.

Special Teams

This unit was looking for a solid road performance at Rutgers but ended up taking an alarming step backwards instead. It started with Michael Geiger’s 35-yard Field Goal attempt, which never had much of a chance. That try was swatted down by Isaiah Wharton, who slid by MSU protection with far too much ease. For arguably the finest kicking school in the history of College Football, allowing another Field Goal block in only game six of the season seems quite the aberration. As if the blocked Field Goal wasn’t enough, punting gaffes piled onto the head shaking performance of this unit that’s scrambling for stability and its identity right now.

It’s gotten to the point where this unit may need an injection of different leadership for 2015. Whether that’s on Mark Snyder or not, it’s just not working right now with MSU’s goals point towards a National Championship. This unit looked so far from that level Saturday night that Spartan Football has been forced to consider some serious alterations from their original plans for Special Teams. If this unit doesn’t turn the corner fast, severe football consequences will show up to spoil the opportunities they hope to play for.

Early in the 2nd Quarter at Rutgers, MSU lined up at the 18 yard line on 3rd and 13 from the left (inside) hash. Kicking from that inside hash at such a short distance is usually harder for right footed kickers. After Aaron Burbridge couldn’t bring a 3rd Down pass to the End Zone in for a score, Geiger was forced to line up from that tight angle for a 30-yard try. Geiger’s already having a tough 2015, and MSU did him no favors by setting him up in a difficult position by failing to move the ball to the center of the field or towards the right hash.

It felt like a 50-50 proposition at best before the snap and it turned out to be in that range as Geiger caught the inside of the right Goal Post, which fortunately bounced it through the uprights to make it 14-10. Nothing is easy for the MSU Special Teams unit right now, but the Offense didn’t do a lot to help Geiger’s effort there. But hopefully making a tough kick can somehow help pull Geiger out of the slump his kicking game is currently in.

Geiger isn’t the only serious issue. MSU is tied for second to last in the nation in Blocked Kicks Allowed (3), is 71st in Kick Off Return Defense, and a rather disappointing 104th in Net Punting considering how much leg Jake Hartbarger has to work with.  Tyler O’Connor was even brought in to Punt in the 4th Quarter because Hartbarger appeared to get badly rattled after shanking one earlier on, and Geiger was brought in to kickoff after Kevin Cronin failed to get one to the 10-yard line, though it’s unclear whether that was due to yet another injury. Dantonio was not pleased with any of these struggles.

“Those things can’t happen, those are like turnovers,” he said during his post-game radio show last week. For Spartan Special Teams to be this much of a fundamental concern going into week seven is a total surprise and enormous problem. And in case you missed the opening play of Northwestern’s visit to Michigan last Saturday, Jehu Chesson took the opening kick back 96 yards to make it 7-0 Wolverines that quick.

MSU may have badly misfired in tapping Mark Snyder to coach Special Teams, but at the mid-season mark it’s now entirely on Mark Dantonio to do what needs to be done in order to get this unit back on track, and fast. So far they’ve looked unprepared and wildly unstable as a playing group.  Maybe at Michigan we'll see a more focused effort and a another trick play for the ages, but the bottom line is still clear.  Michigan State Football will never get a chance to reach higher in 2015 if they continue to allow serious Special Teams blunders to occur.

Overall

The current era of this rivalry began when Nick Saban and Lloyd Carr took over their programs in 1995. Michigan holds an 11 to 9 edge over MSU in those 20 games. Both schools have gone on extended runs during that time, but the days of a lopsided rivalry are so far gone that media or anyone that acts like it’s still the Schembechler or Duffy era has been left looking like a complete fool. The rivalry’s record since 1995 speaks for itself. Fans around the state and around the country see this sibling rivalry for what it is, extremely competitive. Feel free to drop that knowledge on any lazy, out of touch yahoo that hits you with such stale and untrue poppycock this week.  There's still a lot of them out there.

The last time Michigan looked good and won convincingly against Michigan State in Ann Arbor was 2006. At that time the Wolverines were on the way to setting up the all time edition of “The Game,” # 1 Ohio State and # 2 Michigan. After falling short in Columbus (42-39) and not getting a rematch in the BCS title game they probably deserved, the Michigan program began to stumble. First came a blowout Rose Bowl loss to USC that was decided in less than 3 Quarters, then came Appalachian State, and so on. Since 2006, the perceptions and realities of Michigan and Michigan State football have changed significantly, the pendulum swung back MSU’s way, but now Saturday begins yet another new era in this series.

As Mark Dantonio brought a new flavor to the Paul Bunyan game, preparing now to face his fourth Michigan Head Coach since 2007, you know who is also looking to sprinkle his assortment of spice into the pot. As you well know after being fired by the San Francisco 49ers at the end of last season, Jim Harbaugh came home to Michigan to “save” the Wolverines’ program. That doesn’t mean that the Mike Hart comments or the 2014 stake throwing incident will be immediately forgotten. Those two incidents and many more (see Magic's statue Thursday morning) will live on in this rivalry until Michigan and Michigan State stop playing football against each other.

Traditionally the Great Lakes sibling rivalry comes down to who runs the ball best. All together now…42 of the last 45 games have been won by the team with more rushing yards. Michigan brings the 3rd ranked Rushing Defense (65.8 yards per game) into Saturday, MSU has the 66th ranked rushing attack (175.0 per game). Going the other way, MSU ranks 34th in Rushing Defense (130.2 yards per game) and Michigan features the 33rd ranked Rushing Offense (201.3 per game). Those numbers favor Michigan, as does playing at home, and as does MSU’s injuries at the point of attack.

The challenge for MSU this week is to get past all the injuries that have slowed them down so far to find a way to reach towards their potential for this week. If they can put their best 60 minutes together at Michigan Stadium, they can not only hold onto Paul Bunyan, but begin to think about much more. If they can leave Ann Arbor with a “W,” that would set MSU up to get healthier before November while beginning to also focus towards a potential College Football Playoff berth. A loss would almost surely mean MSU is out of the Playoff discussion for good in 2015.

No one seems to expect much from the Spartans this week, outside the Duffy Daugherty Football building. MSU is too banged up, they say. The Spartans have looked too sluggish against over matched doormats, pundits point out. But something special happens with the greatest in-state rivalry in the country arrives again and all that pre-game chatter fades away after kickoff and the trash talk and hard hitting finally begins.

Many have expected this game to be close since before Fall Camp. Nothing we’ve seen from either team so far suggests that it won’t be. Though they all count one in the standings, some games mean more. There’s no question this game is personal between Michigan and Michigan State, which will be immediately evident by the intensity displayed across the field Saturday afternoon. This is simply the bitterest rivalry in all of College Football.

While there is no question that Michigan is playing with a new burst of energy and desire that flows from the khaki pants down, if you will.  There is absolutely no doubt that the Spartans won’t give up on their quest to reach higher and play for a National Championship in 2015 without laying it all on the line. That’s going to the final rub, come early Saturday evening, who wants it more?  That’s what will ultimately decide who wins the 2015 edition of Michigan-Michigan State, and that's the way it should be.

@JPSpartan

P. A. T. (Perhaps Another Thought…)

1. This sport has officiating issues in large part because football is a hard game to call from the field level. The answer is simple, add an Off-Field Official to College and NFL games. The only thing blocking that idea is probably the Officials themselves and their collective egos. It’s time for someone in this sport to step up and lead by installing an Off-Field Official to make all replay decisions and consult the lead Referee in select situations. It would only make the game better and more efficient.
2. The Spartans decision to pull up against Air Force may have cost their Offense the momentum and rhythm they are still trying to relocate. Injuries aside, the Offense has struggled to find its best stride yet, and that’s probably where it all began.
3. The Spartans decision to pull up on opponents and their struggles with less talented and accomplished opponents has not only cost them in the polls so far, it will crush them further should they eventually lose a game. If MSU loses a game and still hopes for an angle into the Playoff discussion, the committee will compare them to other 1-loss teams to determine who looked best during 2015. MSU’s will not match up well at all. Just winning them all only works if you happen to actually win them all. Otherwise, you’re bound to get shorted when compared to a team that’s played with the pedal to the metal in each and every game.
4. If their luck doesn’t change fast, the Spartans are going to look a lot like the Georgia Bulldogs of 2008. Ending 07, Georgia was arguably the best team in the country. Starting 2008, they were a heavy favorite for the BCS Championship. About 10 significant injuries later, they ended up facing MSU in the Citrus Bowl in January, completing a season that was heavily diluted by too many injuries to their top players.