The Path to Six Wins for Kansas Football
The number six is an important number for Kansas football. Not only is it on the jersey of the Jayhawks’ nationally decorated quarterback Jalon Daniels, but it also represents a status that KU has been striving to reach again since the late 2000s.
Six victories mean you are eligible to play in a bowl game. And while other programs may look at it as a baseline expectation, for programs like Kansas over the last 13+ years, it signifies progress. Whenever a new coach came in, the plea from the fan base was, just get us back to a bowl game. And what they meant was, make Kansas relevant again.
The Jayhawks are already more than halfway there at 4-0 with only conference games remaining. Where could those other two wins (or more, given how the season has started) come from? Let’s break down the remaining slate.
October 1: vs. Iowa State
Current record: 3-1
Preseason projection: 6.5 wins
ESPN Matchup Predictor: 38.7% chance to win for Kansas
The Cyclones have a bunch of new faces in key positions on offense, but it’s defense is legit so far. ISU overcame Iowa’s stout defense to narrowly win but couldn’t contain Baylor last week. This is KU’s homecoming and could be another sellout at The Booth in what is looking like a pretty even matchup.
October 8: vs. TCU
Current record: 3-0
Preseason projection: 6.5 wins
ESPN Matchup Predictor: 41.7% chance to win for Kansas
ESPN likes Kansas’ odds better against the Horned Frogs more than Iowa State so far. TCU’s offense is clicking so far, averaging 46.3 points per game, but the defense can be exposed through the air. We’ll get a better sense after TCU plays Oklahoma this week, but if Kansas is going to win, it’s likely going to be a shootout.
October 15: at Oklahoma
Current record: 3-1
Preseason projection: 9.5 wins
ESPN Matchup Predictor: 12.1% chance to win for Kansas
Just like how Kansas State had had Oklahoma’s number in recent years, OU similarly has dominated the Jayhawks in the 2000s. It’s the game after the Red River Rivalry for Oklahoma, but seeing as this is at home for the Sooners, the odds are against the Jayhawks here.
October 22: at Baylor
Current record: 3-1
Preseason projection: 7.5 wins
ESPN Matchup Predictor: 13.2% chance to win for Kansas
This is a daunting back to back for Kansas on the road. KU has the better quarterback, but Baylor has an improved defense and is also well coached. This could be a fun back-and-forth matchup.
November 5: vs Oklahoma State
Current record: 3-0
Preseason projection: 8.5 wins
ESPN Matchup Predictor: 36.6% chance to win for Kansas
Oklahoma State is currently the highest-ranked team remaining on Kansas’ schedule according to the AP poll, but ESPN thinks the Jayhawks have a better shot at victory than Baylor and Oklahoma. It certainly helps that the game is in Lawrence and coming off a bye week. OSU has also not played a team yet that offers much of a test, so it’s unclear just how good this Cowboys’ team is.
November 12: at Texas Tech
Current record: 3-1
Preseason projection: 5.5 wins
ESPN Matchup Predictor: 33.3% chance to win for Kansas
Texas Tech took down Houston the week before Kansas, though it needed double overtime to do so. Coming into the season, the Red Raiders were projected to be toward the bottom of the Big 12, and through four games it’s too early to tell how accurate that is. Tech knocked off Texas to start conference play but also lost by double digits to NC State, which has been the strongest competition to date.
November 19: vs Texas
Current record: 2-2
Preseason projection: 8 wins
ESPN Matchup Predictor: 19.4% chance to win for Kansas
The year after KU’s overtime upset thriller in Austin, Texas now comes to Lawrence on KU’s senior day. It may say KU’s chances are only 20%, but anything can happen here considering the recent history between these two.
November 26: at Kansas State
Current record: 3-1
Preseason projection: 6.5 wins
ESPN Matchup Predictor: 25.5% chance to win for Kansas
Which K-State team will we see by the final game of the season: the one that lost at home to Tulane or the one that beat Oklahoma on the road? And at the rate that Kansas improved last season throughout the year under Lance Leipold, these could be two completely different teams in late November.
Bowl season feels like a real opportunity when you only need two wins in eight games in a Big 12 that is currently wide open. Even if Kansas drops all three of the gauntlet that is Oklahoma-Baylor-Oklahoma State, the Jayhawks at a minimum can go 2-2 against Iowa State, TCU, Texas Tech, and Texas and find themselves bowling.
Given how the season has started, it feels like a real possibility that Kansas is playing in December for the first time in a long time.
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