What Do the Numbers Say? The Bye Week Edition of All Things CW
TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — We've been saying all season that one of the key statistics for the Alabama Crimson Tide this season would be third-down conversions, as it's not only telling about the offense's ability to sustain drives but gives a clear indication about who quarterback Bryce Young looks to in clutch situations.
That's usually. Not so much this season.
With so many new faces and so many possibilities in the passing game, the Crimson Tide has been pretty diverse, with 19 different players having a reception so far.
Yet things are still pretty unsettled. Not only is that partly due to injuries and the lack of experience with the quarterback, but Young has also been hurt, suffering a shoulder injury against Arkansas.
This week won't help as he'll will be shut down to help rest the injury. Young started against Tennessee and Mississippi State, but you probably noticed that he wasn't throwing downfield much against the Bulldogs — in part to minimize the risk of a setback.
He's going to need to down the stretch, especially against LSU on Nov. 5.
So which player will step in that regard on the other end?
Running back Jahmyr Gibbs has the most receptions (31). Ja’Corey Brooks has the most yards (376). Sophomore JoJo Earle has the best average gain per catch (20.4). Junior Traeshon Holden tops the team in touchdowns (five).
Plus, freshman Isaiah Bond has the longest gain at 53 yards.
Alabama has passed for 2,195 yards, however last week everyone saw what happens when it's not clicking, especially in the second half. Where it really showed statistically was in the running game, which was pretty stagnant as Mississippi State could zero in on keeping everything in front of the secondary.
Overall, Alabama is fifth in the nation in scoring offense, averaging 43.1 points per game despite its lack of cohesion in the passing game.
That's the good news. It's 15th in total offense and 17th in rushing, but then 28th in passing efficiency.
It's also 28th in third-down conversions.
As noted here before, one of the really impressive things about Young during his Heisman Trophy season was that his completion percentage actually went up on third down. He completed 68.4 percent of his attempts on first down, 65.8 on second, but was 86-for-122, 70.5 percent, for 1,263 yards on third down.
He also had his best average for passing yards on third down, 10.4 per attempt. His passer rating was 176.3.
So far this season, Young has been 25-for-46 (54.3 percent) for 379 yards, with five touchdowns on third down.
He hasn't been picked off, and also hasn't been sacked nearly as much.
Yet his passer rating is just 159.4 on third down.
That’s actually pretty normal, although Young isn't known for being a normal quarterback.
He's been at his best this season on second down, when defenses often don’t know if Alabama is looking to run or pass. It's translated to a passer rating of 174.5.
Going back to our original premise, what Young hasn't had so far is a go-to receiver he can count on like he had with John Metchie III last season until he suffered a season-ending knee injury in the SEC Championship Game.
Against Georgia at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Metchie had six catches for 97 yards and a touchdown all before halftime. However, with less than a minute remaining in the second quarter he tore his ACL on a non-contact play.
Jameson Williams stepped up in that role, but then he too suffered a knee injury during the CFP National Championship Game, also against Georgia. The Bulldogs went on to win, 33-18.
Metchie had 25 third-down receptions in 13 games last season, averaging almost two per outing. Williams had 18 third-down catches, and the two combined for 878 yards and seven touchdowns in the key situation.
Through eight games this season, Brooks is the only player close to averaging a third-down catch per game despite only being a sophomore. That speaks volumes to his potential and future, but going from making the occasional big catch (like he did in the Iron Bowl last year) to consistently being the guy the offense looks to and counts on is the next step in his development.
Could it happen in November? Alabama needs someone to step up in that capacity, and for the overall chemistry to improve in the passing game if it's going to be a legitimate contender.
2022 Alabama Third-Down Receiving Leaders
Name, Catches-Yards (Avg.) TDS
Ja’Corey Brooks 7-125 (17.9) 1
Kobe Prentice 5-86 (17.2) 1
Jahmyr Gibbs 5-9 (1.8) 0
Jermaine Burton 4-51 (12.8) 1
Traeshon Holden 2-20 (10.0) 2
Cameron Latu 3-29 (9.7) 1
Alabama’s Top Third-Down Receivers Since 2009
Receptions
- Amari Cooper, 2014, 32
- John Metchie III, 2021, 25
- Jerry Jeudy, 2019, 20
- Calvin Ridley, 2015, 19
- Amari Cooper, 2012, 19
Receiving Yards
- Jameson Williams, 2021, 471
- John Metchie III, 2021 408
- Amari Cooper, 2014, 373
- Jerry Jeudy, 2019, 303
- Amari Cooper, 2012, 293
Why Turnovers are the Key Statistic to Watch
Here's probably the most surprising statistic you'll see about Alabama linebacker Will Anderson Jr., who may be the best defender in college football this season.
Out of his 190 career tackles, including 56 for a loss and 30.5 sacks, he has the same number of forced fumbles as interceptions: One.
Yes, for his Crimson Tide career, all 36 games.
It's a bit of an aberration, sure, and also speaks volumes about how players often have little control over some statistics in particular.
But when considering the keys to the Crimson Tide's stretch run, as November is once again the pivotal month for Alabama's chances of reaching the SEC Championship Game and making the College Football Playoff, turnovers has to be at the top of the list.
Alabama's played eight games so far.
It's created eight turnovers.
That's it.
It's not just below average, it's on pace to easily be the lowest by an Alabama team during the Nick Saban era.
To give an idea of how uncharacteristic this is, consider the following:
• Since 2007, the Crimson Tide has averaged 24 turnovers gained a season, which breaks down to 16 interceptions and eight fumble recoveries.
• It's had at least 20 every season minus one, 2013.
• Alabama has forced at least one turnover in 96 of the last 107 games, dating back to the start of the 2015 season. During that stretch, the Crimson Tide has forced 168 turnovers (109 interceptions, 59 fumbles) and returned 40 of those miscues for touchdowns.
Although Alabama has forced at least one turnover in six straight games heading into its bye, it's still tied for 99th in the nation in turnovers gained. When factoring in the 11 turnovers lost the Crimson Tide is tied for 90th in turnover margin.
Some of it has to do with Alabama's opponents. Utah State and Louisiana-Monroe played so conservatively they opted for a take-no-chances approach and basically conceded the game. They lost by a combined score of 118-7.
Thanks in part to the transfer portal, the Crimson Tide has seen more veteran quarterbacks, who are less prone to making mistakes.
Also, Mike Leach had Will Rogers throwing a lot of sideline passes, and attempts under the coverage — plays that almost never result in pickoffs.
Alabama didn't have an interception against the Bulldogs, but the defenders broke up a whopping 15 pass attempts, with cornerbacks Eli Ricks and Kool-Aid McKinstry both notching four.
The Crimson Tide was called for a pair of pass-interference penalties, although Saban might still be arguing one, but it's hard to argue against the results.
Mississippi State managed just 231 passing yards, averaging 7.7 yards per completion, and 3.78 per attempt. The longest completion was 21 yards to Austin Williams.
Alabama isn't going to bemoan not having more than one turnover gained in the game when it came within seconds of notching a shutout, nor should it.
Nevertheless, there are just seven players on the Alabama roster who have been credited with a forced fumble during their Crimson Tide careers: Henry To’oTo’o, DeMarcco Hellams, Jaylen Moody, Anderson, Malachi Moore, Chris Braswell and Tim Smith.
Every one of them is looking for the second. Only Braswell and Hellams have one this season.
Meanwhile, the players on the current roster have collectively collected 71.5 sacks.
As for interceptions, the Crimson Tide's active leader is safety Jordan Battle with five. However, Battle doesn't have one this season (Anderson, Terrion Arnold and Hellams have Alabama's three pickoffs this season) as opponents have largely shied away from him.
Alabama Active Turnover Leaders
Interceptions
Battle 5
Hellams 4
Moore 4
Brach 2
Fumble Recoveries
DJ Dale 2
Justin Eboigbe 2
Tim Smith 2
Dallas Turner 2
That may be tougher to do from here on out as Alabama made some adjustments last week including plugging Ricks in as a starter.
Moreover, the bye ought to give the Crimson Tide defenders both a chance to rest and sort of reset for the stretch run. That should help both the beat-up linemen and the pass-rushers.
But considering this was supposed to be a team of ballhawks, the Crimson Tide can't afford to squander its chances from here on out.
Did Alabama's Defense Set Records with 15 Pass Breakups Against MSU?
Although Leach gave a highly-entertaining speech about his receivers having dinosaur hands and that if it continues he fears for the future generations of people in Starkville due to evolution, Saturday may have been a record-setting day for Alabama Crimson Tide pass defenders.
The Crimson Tide was credited with 15 passes broken up, mostly by the secondary. The starting cornerbacks, Ricks and McKinstry, combined for eight.
We'll start with the 15. Was it a record? Probably. It's just one of those categories that's extremely difficult to track, and like rushing the passer not always correctly credited (especially on the road).
Here's what we do know. Mississippi State attempted 61 passes against the Crimson Tide, the second most by an opponent in Crimson Tide history.
Topping that list is the 63 Vanderbilt attempted in 1989, en route to a 20-14 loss. Alabama was credited with breaking up 14 passes in that game, and having one interception.
Paul W. "Bear" Bryant's final game, the 1982 Liberty Bowl against Illinois, is next on that list with 58 pass attempts, followed by the 2016 national title game against Clemson, when Alabama came up short 35-31. The Tigers threw 57 times, the same number as South Carolina in 2019.
The Crimson Tide was credited with one pass breakup against Clemson, and two at South Carolina.
Incidentally, during the 1992 title game against Miami in the Sugar Bowl, the Hurricanes attempted 56 passes in the 34-13 loss. Gino Torretta had three interceptions after only having four picked off during the entire season. Alabama was credited with breaking up 13 passes.
As for the last two times Alabama faced Leach at Mississippi State, it was credited with two pass breakups last year when the teams played in Starkville, and nine the year before.
As for the eight by the two starting cornerbacks, it's not a record. John Mangum and Efrum Thomas had 10 together in that 1989 Vanderbilt game.
Ricks and McKinstry appeared to have tied the record during the Saban era, though. When Marquis Johnson had a program-record six against South Carolina in 2009, Kareem Jackson was credited with two.
It should be noted, though, that Javier Arenas was the starter at left cornerback, with Jackson at right cornerback in the offense. Johnson usually came in as part of the nickel and dime packages.
Most Passes Broken Up, Game
- 6 Marquis Johnson vs. South Carolina, Oct. 17, 2009
- 6 John Mangum at Vanderbilt, Sept. 30, 1989
- 6 John Mangum vs. Southwestern Louisiana, Oct. 14, 1989
- 5 Mark McMillian vs. Vanderbilt, Sept. 29, 1990
Numerous other defensive backs have had four pass breakups in a game under Saban, including Dee Milliner twice (Michigan and Ole Miss 2020), Cyrus Jones (Ohio State 2014), Levi Wallace (Colorado State 2017), and Xavier McKinney (Oklahoma 2018).
Magnum has the season record of 24, set in 1989. The best during the Saban era was 20 by Milliner in 2012.
Most Alabama Pass Breakups, Saban Years
- 2007 Simeon Castille (DB), Sr., 10
- 2008 Rashad Johnson (DB), Sr., 11
- 2009 Marquis Johnson (DB), Sr., 17
- 2010 C.J. Mosley (LB), Fr., 10
- 2011 DeQuan Menzie (DB), Sr. 11
- 2012 Dee Milliner (DB), Jr., 20
- 2013 Landon Collins (DB), So., 6
- 2014 Cyrus Jones (DB), Jr., 13
- 2015 Minkah Fitzpatrick (DB), Fr, 11
- 2016 Minkah Fitzpatrick (DB0, So., 7; Ronnie Harrison (DB), So., 7
- 2017 Levi Wallace (DB) Sr., 15
- 2018 Anfernee Jennings (LB), Jr., 11
- 2019 Patrick Surtain (DB), So.. 8; Trevon Diggs (DB), Sr., 8
- 2020 Patrick Surtain II (DB), Jr., 12
- 2021 Brian Branch (DB), So. 9
So far, Alabama has 39 pass breakups this season, which is just six shy of last year's total, but still nowhere near the 80 the Crimson Tide had in 2015.
But sophomore Kool-Aid McKinstry's 11 on the season leads the SEC by three, and is tied for season in the nation by Ridge Texada of North Texas, who has 12 in eight games.
Hellams is second on the Crimson Tide with six, while both Brian Branch and Malachi Moore have five.
With his four on Saturday, Ricks is tied for 20th in the league.
Pass Breakups By Season
- 2007 43
- 2008 57
- 2009 74
- 2010 57
- 2011 56
- 2012 58
- 2013 51
- 2014 61
- 2015 80
- 2016 55
- 2017 66
- 2018 75
- 2019 50
- 2020 61
- 2021 45
- 2022 (39)
“I thought he did a good job,” Saban said about Ricks on Saturday. “He gave up one throw. When you’re playing five under man, you’re supposed to be underneath the guy, so the guy shouldn’t be able to catch a comeback on you and caught one on him. Caught one on Kool-Aid on 4th-and-10. But I thought he played well.
Added Hellams: "He definitely is a great DB."
5 Statistical Reasons Why 2022 Crimson Tide Could Be Better Than 2021
The 2021 Alabama Crimson Tide was considered one of the better teams in program history. Had it avoided an injury or two, and not played the National Championship Game down its two best receivers and both starting cornerbacks, maybe things would have been a little different.
The season also featured the first Crimson Tide quarterback to win the Heisman Trophy.
Eight games into the 2022 season and Alabama has played three close games, losing one at Tennessee, and Bryce Young suffered a shoulder injury. The Crimson Tide can still win the SEC title and make the College Football Playoff if it can run the table, but the general belief is that this team isn't as good as last year's, at least not yet.
The numbers say otherwise and that the teams, at least statistically, are pretty even.
Here are the big-category averages for last season, and through the Crimson Tide's first eight games of 2022.
Offense
Category, 2021; 2022
- Rushing 4.1; 6.0
- Receiving 13.4; 12.4
- Pass Effic. 166.5; 157.1
- All-Purpose 546.4; 567.1
- Total Yards 488.2; 485.1
Defense
- Rushing 2.7; 2.7
- Receiving 11.0; 10.8
- Pass. Effic. 132.5; 109.3
- All-Purpose 336.8; 345.7
- Total Yards 295.6; 304.1
Special Teams
- Kick returns 25.3; 20.7
- Punt Returns 7.9; 19.3
- KR Opponents 19.0; 17.3
- PR Opponents 6.1; 6.9
With those in mind, here are five reasons why the 2022 Crimson Tide could end up being better than the 2021 version:
1) The offensive line is better
It just is. Alabama is averaging significantly more yards per carry, and has only yielded 12 sacks so far. Last year, opponents notched 42 (2.8 per game).
2) Bryce Young's injury
Despite his shoulder setback, Alabama's total offensive yards are almost an exact match from last season. One exception is third-down conversions as the Crimson Tide is at 47 percent after posting 52 percent in 2021, but there's definitely the potential for improvement down the stretch. Last year, Young's numbers took a dip after the bye week as the Crimson Tide's opponents got significantly tougher. This year the opposite could be true.
3) Pass rush
It's not showing up in sacks, as Alabama is only registering 2.9 per game so far after posting an impressive 3.8 last season, but where we're seeing the difference is in pass efficiency. The Crimson Tide has seen significant improvement as quarterbacks know they have to make quick throws, or else. Additionally, opponents are converting just 26 percent of their third-down opportunities. That's down from 31 percent.
4) Special teams
Just in punt returns alone the Crimson Tide is tremendously better. Punter James Burnip has significantly improved as well.
5) Tennessee
The game at Knoxville stands out as the defense struggled in a crazy environment, and it still ended up being just a three-point loss. But Alabama made adjustments and nearly shut out the potent Air Raid offense last week in the 30-6 victory over Mississippi State.
LSU will probably try and attack the Crimson Tide in a similar fashion as the Volunteers, and also in an extremely hostile environment. So we'll probably get a pretty good read on the defense on Nov. 5 and whether the UT loss was more of aberration or a sign of things to come.
The bottom line: If Alabama can avoid having more major injury issues, both the offense and defense could both significantly improve over the final month of the regular season.
At least that's what the numbers say.
Lots of Rumblings Being Felt
It's been the kind of week in which the animals are restless, the birds are not singing and the water level unexpectedly changes.
For those who don't know, these are warning signs for an earthquake, and not to trivialize what a real one feels like or the very-real damage that often occurs, it sort of feels like one is coming in college football.
However, that's the thing about earthquakes, they vary in size and intensity, and one's never quite sure when they might occur.
Even in the Southeastern Conference there have been a lot of rumblings, the kind that make you think there's probably a lot more under the surface. We're not going to get into all the controversial news and updates coming out of Auburn, Tennessee and Texas A&M lately, but if you want to check them out:
Tennessee: Tennessee football gets extension from NCAA in Jeremy Pruitt recruiting scandal (making a postseason ban for this season all but impossible).
Texas A&M: Multiple Aggies Freshmen Suspended Ahead of Ole Miss Matchup
Meanwhile, the changing landscape of college football, ranging from conference realignment to expansion of the College Football Playoff, has taken a back seat to the actual 2022 season being played.
The one thing that seems for certain is that the CFP format will go up to 12 teams as soon as all the details can be worked out. Among them, the problem of the top-seeded conference champion always being in the same bracket with the top-seeded non-conference champion in a straight bracket model is finally getting some attention.
Meanwhile, on the week that former running back LenDale White revealed that he once received $150,000 cash in a bag while at Southern California, the NCAA Division I Board of Directors voted unanimously to clarify how schools can be involved with the name, image and likeness activities of enrolled student-athletes on their campuses.
There wasn't too much that was new or surprising in the announced "guidance," but the NCAA made it clear that it won't allow for NIL deals to be used as recruiting inducements or pay-for-play or performance-based compensation.
You know, the things that Nick Saban was complaining about during the offseason.
"School staff members also cannot be employed by or have an ownership stake in an NIL entity,'' the NCAA said. "Schools also can request donors provide funds to collectives and other NIL entities, provided the schools do not request that those funds be directed to a specific sport or student-athlete."
This may be the organization giving schools a chance to redirect some of its efforts, and change how they've been directly involved with collectives.
The key will be what the NCAA might do to back it up.
“The new guidance may require institutions and key stakeholders to modify practices, and some disentanglement may be necessary,” Lynda Tealer, chairperson of the NIL Working Group and an executive assistant athletics director at the University of Florida, said.
It that respect, this was clearly a warning.
Wait, did all the dogs in the neighborhood suddenly stop barking? Maybe it's my imagination.
5 Things That Got Our Attention This Week
1) Per Ross Dellenger of Sports Illustrated, the NCAA Division I Council is reviewing proposals to re-classify volunteer coaching positions as full-time positions, and lift the pay restrictions on football graduate assistants. The volunteer coach status would have a huge impact in sports like baseball and softball, where the volunteer coach would become a fourth full-time, paid coach.
2) Six Star Pro Nutrition issued a statement regarding its NIL deal with Alabama wide receiver Jermaine Burton, who was in some hot water after smacking at least one Tennessee fan in the aftermath of the loss at Neyland Stadium:
“The athlete in question was compensated for a short-term promotion which ended in September — successfully performing the duties asked of him. This NIL deal has come and gone, as it was centered around getting players to log offline during the #BamaRush social media phenomenon. Not every NIL deal (despite the fact Jimbo Fisher has failed to buy a National Championship with them) is a blank check with an open timeline.”
3) Speaking of Neyland Stadium, Tennessee's Director of Sports Surface Management Darren Seybold had the responsibility of doing all the repair work from the postgame celebration. “I probably heard from 90 percent of the SEC guys," he told ESPN. "The goalposts coming down, you kind of expect it. So we already had a set ready to go. We've been bad for so long that we watched a lot of goalposts come down in the 12 years that I've been here from afar. You just kind of learn from everybody like, all right, man, this is what you're in for." Seybold and his staff repaired the field with an arsenal of lawn equipment, including aerators, fertilizers, mowers, blowers and Shop-Vacs to vacuum the grass for the broken glass from cigar tubes. “When you first see all the cigars you're like, what is all that? They got dropped, but then they got shredded. So we had all this tobacco laying everywhere. But between shoes and cigar tubes ... we couldn't get over the amount of clothes. OK, what'd you do, walk out of here nekkid?"
4) Another SEC school is flipping the student student for basketball due to how it looks on television, Florida. It's part of additional work coming to Stephen C. O’Connell Center, which could include a new roof that's "solar ready" in the near future at a $7M price tag. Alabama is planning to do something similar if and when it builds a new basketball arena.
5) There were five coaching changes in the FBS during the first month of this season, there were eight before Nov. 1 last season, but only one in 2020 and 2019.
The pressure just continues to build ...
AFCA Executive Director Todd Berry: "The transfer portal and NIL are having huge impacts. I don’t think any of our coaches are surprised about it because this is one of the things we’ve talked about that was likely to happen. Athletic directors are concerned that if they don’t make a move right now, then players will enter the portal because of frustrations with the coach or frustrations over not winning, whatever the case may be. So they have to do something early."
Sports Illustrated's Pat Forde noted some of the buyouts that coaches have in their contracts this year: $86 million for Texas A&M's Jimbo Fisher, $72 million for Penn State's James Franklin, $43.5 million for Oklahoma's Brent Venables, $42 million for Iowa's Kirk Ferentz.
Tide-Bits
• Alabama soccer being the first SEC team since 2016 to finish the regular season with a perfect league record (10-0) is even more impressive when considering that the Crimson Tide has only had two winning seasons in league play since 1998.
• Here's hoping Nate Oats saying that he's hopeful the basketball team will be at full strength by December isn't just wishful thinking. The past couple of teams have had some bad luck in terms of offseason setbacks, and the SEC isn't getting any easier. The key player, of course, is point guard Jahvon Quinerly, who hurt his knee in the NCAA Tournament opener, but even so it'll probably take him a while to get acclimated to all the new faces around him.
• It's been a rough month for the Tagovailoa family. Tua's concussion situation made national news, but a lot of fans missed that Taulia, who is also a former Crimson Tide quarterback, was carted off the field two weeks ago during Maryland's game against Indiana. It turned out that he had re-aggravated a sprained MCL in his right knee that was originally suffered earlier this season, but he won't dress to face Northwester on Saturday. After setting numerous program records last season he's passed for 2,001 yards so far this season, with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions. Maryland is 6-2.
• The media inexplicably voted Alabama 10th in women's basketball at SEC media days. The coaches had the Crimson Tide fourth in their preseason predicted order of finish. Not only did the media completely miss the boat on this team, the coaches might have been a little too cautious as well. That's no exaggeration.
• Want to see Young's Heisman Trophy?
Did You Notice?
Kudos to the Missouri football team for honoring the victims of Monday’s St. Louis school shooting at its next game Saturday. “Just such a shame for us to continue to have to face these types of stories and issues,” Tigers coach Eliah Drinkwitze said via Mizzou Sports Talk. “For me, it’s not political at all. It’s about protecting the future of our country, and our children are our future. And we cannot continue to live like this. We just can’t. I talked to our staff and talked to my wife about it all the time. It’s not about who’s right. It’s about what’s right. And we need to get this right.”
• Bo Jackson Asked If Deion Sanders Would Be a Good Fit for Auburn
• Seven Potential College Football Playoff Spoilers
• The Good and Bad of an Expanded College Football Playoff
Christopher Walsh's notes column All Things CW appears every week on BamaCentral
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